Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250810 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 22.4 19.9 21.4 18.9 14.5 15.4 15.4 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 63.2 59.8 55.7 52.8 43.4 41.9 41.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -40.0 -5.0 -11.0 1.0 -24.0 -7.0 -7.0 U VU U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.72 EP092025 250810 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.