Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.5  21.7  17.3  18.8  13.2  14.4  14.4  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.2  59.8  55.7  47.4  45.8  41.9  41.2  41.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0  16.0  -9.0   3.0   7.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.16

 EP092025 250810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.