Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.0  17.3  16.3  12.6  13.6  13.6  13.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.7  58.7  57.8  55.9  52.4  50.8  50.8  50.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  16.0   2.0  -4.0 -16.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.72

 EP092025 250811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.