Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250811 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 17.3 16.7 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.7 57.8 55.9 48.4 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.34 EP092025 250811 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.