Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250811 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 17.8 14.5 11.6 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.4 55.8 53.4 52.6 51.9 51.9 51.9 51.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -2.0 -9.0 -18.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.66 EP092025 250811 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.