Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102025 250826 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 23.3 19.1 14.0 20.3 23.3 23.3 27.6 N N N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 18.0 14.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.6 69.3 64.6 55.8 35.7 28.3 23.4 18.4 N U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 53.0 36.0 30.0 3.0 18.0 7.0 -3.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 66.0 62.0 58.0 48.0 43.0 35.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 13.0 8.0 4.0 F N N N U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.5% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 EP102025 250826 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.