Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102025 250828 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 30.8 34.5 38.7 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.2 38.4 38.4 34.6 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 20.0 1.0 -9.0 -45.0 -45.0 -45.0 -45.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 41.0 37.0 34.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 9.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.74 EP102025 250828 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.