Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  11.5  10.9   9.7  10.2  10.8  10.5   9.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   9.0   9.0  14.0   7.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 122.9 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   9.0  19.0  44.0  37.0  18.0  15.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        4.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       26.5%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%       14.5%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       13.5%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       12.9%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       45.3%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       28.4%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.3%       10.3%       16.3%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%       20.9%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%       32.9%       23.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP112025 250831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  11.5  10.9   9.7  10.2  10.8  10.5   9.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%