Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  11.1   9.6   9.0  12.8  12.3   8.3  12.2  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  14.0   6.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 118.6 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  19.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  48.0  51.0   9.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       24.6%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       12.8%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       11.7%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       11.3%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       41.9%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%       24.5%       14.8%
 55kt / 48h       23.1%       10.9%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       18.8%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       30.1%       21.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 EP112025 250831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  11.1   9.6   9.0  12.8  12.3   8.3  12.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%