Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1   8.4   9.3  11.9  11.7  12.2  13.4  18.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0  11.0  15.0   9.0   6.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 113.6 113.6 113.6 111.5 111.5 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  40.0  57.0  57.0  50.0  39.0  57.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        4.6%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       27.7%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       16.2%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       15.4%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       14.7%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       41.7%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       25.3%       15.6%
 55kt / 48h       25.2%       12.0%       18.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.0%       18.0%       15.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%       24.2%       17.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 EP112025 250831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1   8.4   9.3  11.9  11.7  12.2  13.4  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%