Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.9  11.5  12.2  14.4  13.7  14.1  16.1  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  13.0  15.0   7.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 108.6 108.6 108.6 106.5 106.5 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  69.0  53.0  65.0  29.0  -1.0 -16.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        6.0%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       30.0%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       18.7%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       18.3%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       17.5%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       38.2%       23.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%       22.3%       13.8%
 55kt / 48h       20.2%       13.9%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%       13.5%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       15.4%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP112025 250901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.9  11.5  12.2  14.4  13.7  14.1  16.1  16.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%