Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.0  13.4  11.3  13.7  15.6  17.9  13.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  15.0  16.0  10.0   6.0   7.0   9.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 115.1 115.1 115.1 112.9 112.9 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  51.0  52.0  22.0  13.0  -2.0  -7.0  27.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        4.2%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       26.8%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       15.6%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       15.2%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       15.2%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       33.8%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%       18.2%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       13.7%       15.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%       11.1%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%       15.4%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP112025 250901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.0  13.4  11.3  13.7  15.6  17.9  13.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%