Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.1  15.2  17.1  20.0  17.2  18.5  13.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  11.0   7.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1 107.9 107.9 107.9 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  48.0  28.0  12.0  -3.0 -23.0 -18.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        8.1%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.9%       38.0%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       28.8%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       28.8%       17.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       25.0%       15.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       36.6%       21.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       21.0%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%       13.3%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        9.5%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%       12.8%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP112025 250901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.1  15.2  17.1  20.0  17.2  18.5  13.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%