Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.7  18.6  20.0  17.0  16.3  16.3  19.7  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  11.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1  97.9  97.9  97.9  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  20.0  18.0   5.0 -10.0 -39.0   5.0  65.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.2%       17.4%       18.3%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       43.4%       34.0%
 30kt / 24h       19.8%       37.5%       28.7%
 35kt / 24h       18.6%       37.5%       28.0%
 40kt / 24h       18.6%       37.5%       28.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       37.3%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       22.1%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       12.9%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        9.2%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        9.5%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP112025 250901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.7  18.6  20.0  17.0  16.3  16.3  19.7  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%