Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  17.8  18.8  18.7  16.1  16.9  17.4  22.7  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  10.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1  97.9  97.9  97.9  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  29.0  18.0   2.0 -22.0 -16.0  32.0  56.0  U  N  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%        9.3%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       28.9%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       21.6%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       21.6%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       21.6%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       22.5%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       10.9%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        8.2%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        4.6%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP112025 250902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  17.8  18.8  18.7  16.1  16.9  17.4  22.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%