Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.2  18.1  18.8  19.5  18.9  21.0  19.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   9.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.1  95.1  95.1  95.1  92.9  86.5  86.5  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  39.0  17.0  18.0   0.0   0.0  37.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        6.3%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       20.5%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       15.1%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.9%       15.1%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       15.1%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       11.2%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        4.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        4.5%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP112025 250902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.2  18.1  18.8  19.5  18.9  21.0  19.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%