Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.8  20.1  18.5  21.6  19.6  23.4  19.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   9.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.1  80.1  80.1  77.9  77.9  77.9  71.5  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  25.0  10.0 -18.0  13.0   7.0  58.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.3%       24.8%       42.1%
 25kt / 24h       56.8%       44.0%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       56.8%       44.0%       50.4%
 35kt / 24h       56.8%       44.0%       50.4%
 40kt / 24h       56.8%       44.0%       50.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.5%       18.3%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.6%        8.2%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        6.4%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP112025 250902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.8  20.1  18.5  21.6  19.6  23.4  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%