Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  19.9  20.8  21.3  18.7  24.5  22.2  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.1  80.1  77.9  77.9  77.9  71.5  69.4  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -5.0 -32.0  -8.0   0.0  10.0  36.0  25.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.4%       16.2%       22.3%
 25kt / 24h       32.9%       28.0%       30.4%
 30kt / 24h       32.9%       27.2%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       32.9%       27.2%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       32.9%       27.2%       30.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       11.7%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%        4.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        4.0%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP112025 250902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  19.9  20.8  21.3  18.7  24.5  22.2  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%