Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.6  19.8  20.3  19.3  23.2  21.6  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   9.0   9.0  16.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  62.9  62.9  62.9  56.5  54.4  54.4  52.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -24.0 -26.0 -39.0  -6.0  17.0  58.0  18.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.5%       15.6%       26.0%
 25kt / 24h       24.4%       21.6%       23.0%
 30kt / 24h       24.4%       19.6%       22.0%
 35kt / 24h       24.4%       19.6%       22.0%
 40kt / 24h       24.4%       17.7%       21.0%
 45kt / 36h       18.8%       12.8%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP112025 250903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.6  19.8  20.3  19.3  23.2  21.6  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%