Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.0  21.1  20.2  24.1  22.3  21.1  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  17.0  16.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  54.4  54.4  52.4  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  -8.0 -18.0 -24.0 -17.0  16.0 -10.0 -48.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.3%        7.5%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       11.7%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%        9.0%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%        9.0%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.7%        8.1%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%        5.2%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP112025 250903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.0  21.1  20.2  24.1  22.3  21.1  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%