Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.5  20.0  18.4  24.6  19.4  20.7  17.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  13.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  56.5  56.5  56.5  54.4  54.4  52.4  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -27.0 -45.0 -46.0  -9.0 -35.0   0.0   6.0  U VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        2.6%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        4.0%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        2.9%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        2.5%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        2.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        1.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP112025 250903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.5  20.0  18.4  24.6  19.4  20.7  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%