Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.2  19.7  22.8  22.5  22.0  19.2  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  17.0  13.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  36.5  36.5  34.4  34.4  32.4  23.0  23.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -41.0 -50.0   6.0   8.0  11.0 -10.0   5.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.4%        6.0%       15.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%        4.5%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        3.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP112025 250903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.2  19.7  22.8  22.5  22.0  19.2  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%