Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  20.7  22.4  23.5  21.6  22.0  17.9  13.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  12.0  20.0  11.0   6.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.9  27.9  27.9  25.7  19.4  19.4   8.0   8.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -50.0  -9.0  -5.0 -19.0  18.0 -26.0  21.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.5%        0.0%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP112025 250904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  20.7  22.4  23.5  21.6  22.0  17.9  13.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%