Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.7  22.2  21.1  20.8  18.8  13.4  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  11.0  16.0  19.0  13.0   5.0  11.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.9  37.9  29.4  29.4  29.4  18.0   9.3   9.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -3.0 -36.0 -51.0  21.0 -32.0   3.0   8.0 VU  U VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP112025 250904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.7  22.2  21.1  20.8  18.8  13.4  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.2%        5.6%