Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250904 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 23.1 21.2 21.7 21.6 18.8 11.5 12.1 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 16.0 19.0 17.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.7 29.4 29.4 29.4 18.0 18.0 9.3 4.6 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 -32.0 -17.0 -3.0 -21.0 -13.0 12.0 26.0 U VU U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 52.0 50.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 41.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 EP112025 250904 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 23.1 21.2 21.7 21.6 18.8 11.5 12.1 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 52.0 50.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 41.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 13.0% 6.5%