Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.9  21.3  21.3  19.3  14.1  11.5  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  17.0  11.0   6.0  11.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  18.0   9.3  11.0   6.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -22.0  14.0  17.0  -9.0  21.0  28.0  47.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        0.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP112025 250905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.9  21.3  21.3  19.3  14.1  11.5  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%