Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  21.3  20.5  18.3  13.8  12.8  22.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  11.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  34.4  34.4  32.4  23.0  14.3  16.0  11.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  17.0   2.0 -17.0  -3.0  15.0  15.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP112025 250905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  21.3  20.5  18.3  13.8  12.8  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%