Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  24.0  21.7  20.4  14.5  12.3  15.7  25.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  44.4  42.4  33.0  33.0  26.0  21.1  19.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   0.0 -16.0 -17.0  10.0  25.0  29.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 EP112025 250905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.