Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  20.8  22.0  19.0  13.6  13.5  24.1  32.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   8.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.4  37.4  28.0  28.0  19.3  21.0  11.5  16.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   1.0 -10.0 -10.0  19.0  37.0  32.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 EP112025 250905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.