Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.7  13.1  12.5  13.7  26.2  37.5  46.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0  11.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.8  14.8   6.0   6.0  -0.4  -3.5  -2.0  -2.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   5.0  27.0  11.0  21.0  43.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  11.0  15.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 EP112025 250906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.