Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  11.6  12.9  15.4  27.6  36.4  45.3  52.5  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.0  16.0   9.6   9.6   6.5   5.0   5.0   8.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   7.0   4.0  32.0  38.0   8.0  31.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  37.0  36.0  38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0   8.0  13.0  14.0  16.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.44

 EP112025 250906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.