Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250907 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 21.2 29.4 32.1 44.1 47.9 46.2 45.3 F N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 14.6 10.0 11.5 8.6 11.5 11.5 13.0 16.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 53.0 42.0 29.0 7.0 20.0 33.0 -22.0 N N N N U U N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 40.0 38.0 38.0 36.0 37.0 40.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 11.0 14.0 12.0 11.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 EP112025 250907 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105.