Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  43.7  48.5  46.5  45.5  34.9   9.4  13.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  11.0  12.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  36.5  36.5  39.6  44.3  46.0  51.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  20.0  12.0  17.0   0.0 -54.0   7.0 -40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  36.0  37.0  38.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  10.0  10.0   7.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.82

 EP112025 250908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.