Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112025 250908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  47.9  47.6  47.5  43.0  25.6  10.2  27.8 VU VU VU VU VU  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  15.0   8.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  41.5  41.5  44.6  46.1  49.3  54.4  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   8.0  11.0  17.0 -14.0   2.0 -33.0 -32.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 EP112025 250908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.