Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 151.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.7 49.3 46.5 42.9 24.6 13.1 15.5 27.2 VU VU VU VU N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 16.0 9.0 6.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.5 64.6 64.6 66.1 69.3 74.4 78.0 78.0 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 24.0 34.0 4.0 -29.0 -11.0 -26.0 3.0 U U N U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 37.0 40.0 41.0 44.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 EP112025 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.70 151.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.