Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250909 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 152.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.1 46.2 40.6 36.2 18.4 8.6 19.2 20.3 VU VU U U F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 5.0 10.0 13.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.6 79.6 81.1 82.7 87.7 91.2 91.2 94.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 28.0 -10.0 -35.0 9.0 -15.0 8.0 -34.0 N U U VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 38.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 EP112025 250909 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 152.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.