Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250910 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 155.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.2 36.0 25.3 18.3 9.2 17.7 21.3 21.5 VU U N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 16.0 25.0 16.0 11.0 8.0 11.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 91.0 92.7 94.4 98.0 98.0 99.8 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 -31.0 -36.0 0.0 -35.0 -15.0 -14.0 -4.0 U VU VU U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 40.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 40.0 39.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 EP112025 250910 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 155.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.