Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112025 250910 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 28.9 19.9 17.6 6.6 15.6 16.5 10.1 U N N F VF F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 27.0 21.0 16.0 12.0 9.0 11.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 91.0 92.7 98.0 99.8 99.8 101.6 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 -31.0 -14.0 0.0 -57.0 -13.0 -28.0 -4.0 VU VU U U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 40.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 1.0% 2.4% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.58 EP112025 250910 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.