Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122025 250902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  14.0  14.5  12.1  17.3  20.4  29.5  32.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  31.0  32.0  25.0  11.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 120.1 111.5  98.0  81.5  65.5  57.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  41.0  76.0  29.0  66.0  30.0  85.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  63.0  56.0  49.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%       10.3%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       52.4%       37.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       39.6%       24.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       39.6%       23.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       35.3%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       11.4%       56.3%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       39.4%       23.3%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%        8.3%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%       17.6%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        6.8%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP122025 250902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  14.0  14.5  12.1  17.3  20.4  29.5  32.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  63.0  56.0  49.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%