Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.5  21.1  24.7  24.3  23.6  25.0  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  36.0  40.0  52.0  39.0  30.0  31.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  31.0   6.0   8.0  25.0  41.0  44.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       16.5%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        6.6%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       20.8%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        7.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%       10.1%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        6.0%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%       16.5%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 EP132025 250911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.5  21.1  24.7  24.3  23.6  25.0  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%