Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  24.2  24.6  22.4  27.2  23.6  22.4  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  38.0  40.0  42.0  50.0  35.0  28.0  32.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  -9.0   0.0  24.0  49.0  31.0  26.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       14.6%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.2%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       17.5%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        6.4%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        8.6%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%       15.3%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP132025 250912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  24.2  24.6  22.4  27.2  23.6  22.4  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%