Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    100.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.7  27.7  31.8  26.1  26.6  18.9  20.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  38.0  41.0  52.0  39.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  25.0  24.0  35.0  30.0  14.0  36.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.6%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        8.9%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        4.5%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        9.7%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP132025 250912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    100.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.7  27.7  31.8  26.1  26.6  18.9  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%