Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  26.6  29.1  27.7  23.6  19.4  15.9  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  48.0  42.0  27.0  28.0  31.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 111.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   9.0  11.0  19.0  17.0   5.0  26.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       11.5%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.3%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       12.5%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        6.2%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       12.2%        7.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 EP132025 250912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  26.6  29.1  27.7  23.6  19.4  15.9  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%