Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  26.9  25.9  23.2  21.4  16.6  16.7  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  48.0  45.0  37.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  22.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 111.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  38.0  28.0   5.0  13.0  28.0  57.0  84.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       14.7%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        5.7%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.2%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       16.2%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        5.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        9.3%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        4.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%       15.5%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 EP132025 250912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  26.9  25.9  23.2  21.4  16.6  16.7  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%