Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  21.1  18.7  19.4  17.3  16.1  17.1  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  35.0  28.0  24.0  28.0  32.0  24.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 111.5  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  37.0  17.0  44.0 -11.0  46.0  44.0  73.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       12.2%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.4%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       12.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        3.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        8.5%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        3.8%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        9.9%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP132025 250913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  21.1  18.7  19.4  17.3  16.1  17.1  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%