Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.7  16.0  17.6  21.2  24.6  32.3  37.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  31.0  30.0  24.0  11.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 132.0 125.1 118.6 103.0  86.5  71.7  53.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  27.0  33.0  33.0  44.0  42.0  15.0  21.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   4.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       14.3%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        6.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        5.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       14.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        3.2%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.7%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP132025 250913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.7  16.0  17.6  21.2  24.6  32.3  37.3  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   4.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%