Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.9  16.8  16.2  15.7  25.4  31.2  34.3  F  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  24.0  17.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 125.1 118.6 114.4  97.7  83.6  68.2  52.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  87.0  62.0  63.0  56.0  25.0   7.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0  10.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       12.2%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       13.1%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        4.1%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.4%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP132025 250914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.9  16.8  16.2  15.7  25.4  31.2  34.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0  10.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%