Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.7  12.0  17.0  15.1  23.8  28.3  38.5  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  27.0  21.0  11.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 122.9 118.6  97.7  83.6  61.7  52.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  58.0  55.0  44.0  39.0  20.0  16.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       15.8%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.7%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       18.9%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        7.3%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%        5.0%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        3.8%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP132025 250914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.7  12.0  17.0  15.1  23.8  28.3  38.5  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%