Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  12.9  15.7  15.2  17.7  22.7  31.9  36.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  26.0  22.0  20.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 118.6 108.5  94.3  71.7  59.7  47.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  42.0  38.0  50.0  45.0  32.0  30.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       18.3%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        9.2%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        8.2%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.3%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       25.1%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%       11.9%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.9%        6.3%       11.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        5.1%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP132025 250914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  12.9  15.7  15.2  17.7  22.7  31.9  36.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%