Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  16.9  18.4  18.4  19.7  26.4  33.2  32.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  20.0  15.0  10.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 104.4  98.5  87.7  73.6  58.2  47.8  40.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  56.0  44.0  42.0  25.0  49.0  39.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  11.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        8.2%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       26.0%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       15.1%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       14.7%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       12.0%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       30.0%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       16.0%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%        5.8%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        4.5%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 EP132025 250914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.